Will you get a refund or owe money? Compare your withholding to estimated 2026 tax liability.
Compares your estimated 2026 federal tax liability against your year-to-date withholding to predict whether you'll receive a refund or owe money when you file. Helps you adjust W-4 withholdings mid-year.
Best used in Q2-Q3 when you have enough withholding data to project year-end. Also useful after major life changes (marriage, new job, side income) or when deciding whether to make estimated payments.
Estimated Tax = Progressive tax on (Income - Deductions) - Credits. Refund/Owed = Withholding - Estimated Tax. Positive = refund. Negative = you owe. Uses 2026 OBBBA brackets and standard deductions.
A large refund means you gave the IRS an interest-free loan. Owing more than $1,000 may trigger underpayment penalties. The sweet spot is breaking even or a small refund under $500. Use the W-4 Advice button for adjustment tips.
This is a projection based on current data. Actual refund/owed depends on year-end bonuses, investment income, deductions you haven't claimed yet, and IRS adjustments. For accurate planning, consult a tax professional.
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